Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has sparked volatility in global oil markets after a blockade enforced by the United States Armed Forces led to uncertainty over shipping routes and supply flows.
The waterway – responsible for about a fifth of global oil and gas trade – has seen increased naval activity and selective enforcement following the collapse of talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.
Reports suggest some vessels have turned back or altered course, while others continue limited transit depending on their cargo links.
Oil markets react
Oil markets reacted sharply, with Brent crude briefly rising above $100 per barrel before fluctuating as traders weighed supply risks against possible diplomatic de-escalation.
Analysts say even partial disruption is enough to drive higher shipping costs, insurance premiums, and price volatility.
Iran has condemned the situation as an act of piracy and warned of retaliation, raising fears of wider regional escalation.
For South Africa, the impact could be significant.
As a fuel-importing country, it remains highly exposed to global oil prices and exchange rate shifts.
Rising crude prices and a weaker rand could feed into higher petrol and diesel prices in upcoming fuel adjustments.
Economists warn that continued instability in the region could quickly translate into increased fuel costs for South African consumers, even without a full shutdown of the waterway.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
| FUEL | PRICE CHANGE |
| Petrol 93 | increase of 243 cents |
| Petrol 95 | increase of 280 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% | increase of 851 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% | increase of 853 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | increase of 679 cents |
If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 243 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 280 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 851 and 853 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 679 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $96.49 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.38/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.
The April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):
| INLAND | April |
| Petrol 93 | R23.25 |
| Petrol 95 | R23.36 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R25.90 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R26.11 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R24.21 |
| COASTAL | April |
| Petrol 93 | R22.46 |
| Petrol 95 | R22.53 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R25.07 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R25.35 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R23.19 |
