The Columbus Blue Jackets failed to make the playoffs for a fifth straight year. Still, they made improvements this year, winning 40 times and having 89 points. That was the most wins and points since the 2018-19 season. They would also finish fourth in the Metropolitan Division, their highest standing since the 2017-18 season.
Momentum is moving towards the Jackets being able to make a run at the playoffs next season. With plenty of draft capital and cap space, Columbus could make major improvements this offseason. Still, with the wrong moves, they could head back to the NHL basement. We look at the nightmare scenario for the Blue Jackets in this 2025 NHL Free Agency period.
The Blue Jackets expect to be aggressive this offseason, with two first-round draft picks and ample cap space. They are expected to have over $42 million in cap space this offseason, according to Cap Wages. They do have an abundance of free agents, though. The Blue Jackets have 12 free agents this offseason, including nine unrestricted. They have seven forwards facing free agency while also having four defensemen and a goalie. There are multiple players they would like to re-sign, including many of their unrestricted free agents.
The Blue Jackets also have needs to address. They need to address the blue line and scoring depth, while also improving in goal this season. Still, with so much cap space, the potential to overspend is prevalent and could end up backfiring for the Jackets down the road.
Blue Jackets lose both Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro
Columbus has their top defender locked up for multiple years to come, with Zach Werenski under contract for the next three seasons. They also have Damon Severson under contract for the next six seasons, keeping their top defensive pairing together. Still, they need to bring back both Provorov and Fabbro if possible.
Provorov was second on the team in ice time per game this past season. He also had seven goals and 26 assists this past season. Further, he had a plus-11 plus/minus rating, the second highest of his career. Provorov was second on the team in takeaways this year, while sitting third on the team in blocked shots. Provorov is expected to be a sought-after player this offseason. At an expected cost of $7 million per year, the Blue Jackets have plenty of space to bring him back, and even overpay slightly to keep their left-side defender on the second rotation in Columbus.
Meanwhile, Fabbro was claimed off waivers this season from the Nashville Predators. Fabbro was paired with Provorov for much of the season, playing on the right side. He would be third on the team in ice time per game while also adding nine goals and 17 assists. Fabbro also led the team in shots blocked this year, led defensemen in hits given, and was fourth among blue liners in takeaways. He is expected to cost just $4.5 million, and at that cost, he needs to be brought back. Columbus was 25th in the NHL in goals-against per game, but they cannot lose their entire second defensive rotation and expect to improve.
Columbus fails to address the needs in goal
As noted, the Blue Jackets were 25th in the NHL in goals against per game this past season. Elvis Merzlikins could be moved this offseason, and that needs to happen. He ranked 48th out of 54 qualified goalies in goals-against average and 42nd in save percentage. Meanwhile, Daniil Tarasov is a restricted free agent, and he was worse than Merzlikins. Tarasov has a 3.54 goals against average and a .881 save percentage this past campaign. That is also in line with career averages for him, as he has a career 3.44 goals against average and a .898 save percentage.
Jet Greaves did see time in goal this year and was solid. He went 7-2-2 with a 1.91 goals against average and a .938 save percentage. Columbus must fix goaltending this offseason, and the best solution would be to move on from both Merzlikins and Tarasov.
Greaves has been solid in his career at the NHL level with a .924 save percentage and a 2.62 career goals-against average. He is just 24 and currently on a contract that allows him to stay in the AHL. The Blue Jackets can bring him to the NHL level as the backup. They can also sign a top-quality free agent goalie.
Anton Forsberg is one option. He was 11-12-3 this past year with a 2.72 goals against average and a .901 save percentage, both marks that would be a major improvement for the Blue Jackets. He has been a primary goalie in the NHL, and his career numbers exceed those of both Merzlikins and Tarasov. Jake Allen is another option, having a 2.66 goals against average and a .908 save percentage this past year. If the Jackets move Merzlikins, they could retain part of his salary and bring in both Forsberg and Allen with their cap space. Still, it would be a disaster if they keep the same goaltending tandem going into next season.
Blue Jackets overspend for a player who under-delivers
Columbus has the cap space to go after a major free agent this offseason. They could spend money on a player like Mitch Marner or Sam Bennett. Still, Marner may want to go to another contender, and it seems Sam Bennett may be looking at staying in Florida. The Jackets currently have just $52.5 million in current contracts signed, and the projected floor for this upcoming season is $65 million. This means Columbus needs to spend $12.5 million in contracts to meet this floor.
This may lead to Columbus overspending for a player who may not fit. Currently, the top two lines are filled with younger and growing players. The oldest player on the top two lines is their center, Boone Jenner, who will turn 32 this season. Further, they have Sean Monahan at center as well as Cole Sillinger. The Jackets do not need a center this upcoming year, especially an aging one. Still, players like Claude Giroux are available. He would cost over $6.5 million, will turn 38 this year, and his numbers have been declining. A signing like that would lead to spending money for the sake of spending money, and that is something Columbus cannot do.
The Jackets need to bring back their defensive second line while fixing the goaltending situation. With so much cap space, they cannot reach for a player, though. Failing to address the defensive end of the ice and overspending for depth would be a nightmare in Columbus.
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