Following an utterly dominant 16-4 Stanley Cup winning performance in 2022, the Colorado Avalanche have struggled to get over the hump since. That’s despite owning Nathan MacKinnon, who is perennially pushing for league MVP, as well as Cale Makar, named a Norris finalist for the fifth straight season after the first 30 goal campaign by an NHL defenseman in over 15 years. As either of them will tell you, individual accolades don’t matter if your last game of the season isn’t a win.
Despite all their star talent, Colorado lost a nightmarish first round seven-game series to their Central Division rival Dallas Stars on the back of a historic playoff performance from the recently traded Mikko Rantanen. This was a painful repeat of 2024’s second round Game 6 double overtime loss to the Stars at the hands of former Av Matt Duchene. A 2023 first round upset to the new expansion Seattle Kraken tops off three years of poor playoff performance.
Despite injuries and player scandals significantly impacting each of those series, hockey is a business, and not making it to the conference finals again with this level of talent is unacceptable. This is evidenced by the firing of former powerplay coach Ray Bennett, who has since signed as an assistant coach with the New York Islanders.
Speaking of the Isles; the Avs are already off to a good start to the summer by not letting longtime New York center Brock Nelson get to free agency. Besides re-signing the former 36-goal scorer, here are a couple of things the front office could do to help Colorado stay in legitimate Stanley Cup contention next year.
Signing Brock Nelson was a good start
If this article had been written a week ago, signing Nelson would have headlined the dream scenario for Colorado this offseason. The goal-scoring 33 year old, acquired from the aforementioned Isles this past trade deadline, just signed a three-year, $22.5 million contract extension to stay with Colorado after a successful trial as their second line center this past spring. Often touted as the most glaring hole on the Avs roster, filling the 2C position was the biggest priority for general manager Chris MacFarland this summer.
Now that the 6-foot-4 center is in the fold, Colorado’s roster is close to set, with 12 NHL forwards already signed for next year to be backed up by the same top-4 defensemen the squad ran with during the playoffs. This will leave them with roughly $1.2 million in cap space to work with, all of which will likely go to rookie blueliner Sam Malinski, their only RFA of note.
While fan favourite Erik Johnson may sign a league minimum contract to return as a seventh defenseman, Ryan Lindgren’s estimated $3-4 million AAV will likely be too expensive for the club to bring back. Logan O’Connor’s recent hip surgery should open up a little LTIR space for the first quarter of the season, but not enough for Colorado to retain the services of their UFA defenseman, let alone their forwards.
Avalanche need to re-sign Jonathan Drouin
Jonathan Drouin, Joel Kiviranta, and Jimmy Vesey are the three UFAs the front office will need to make decisions about prior to free agency July 1. Vesey didn’t dress for the Avs in the playoffs as a rental, and Kiviranta’s shocking 16-goal outburst from the third line also likely priced him out of Colorado. However, Drouin’s agent, Allan Walsh was quoted last summer saying, “don’t f**k with happy,” regarding Druin’s contract scenario, and the bargain contract he signed with the team who took a league minimum flier on him as a reclamation project the previous summer.
The former Halifax Moosehead forward won the Memorial Cup alongside MacKinnon in 2013, and fit in on his wing without missing a beat in Colorado. Drouin scored 56 points in his inaugural season in Colorado, which made his most recent 37 points in an injury-ridden 43 games feel a bit lacklustre. This feeling was exacerbated by his team low seven minutes in the last game of the season against Dallas, his fourth straight under 14 minutes after averaging over 18 minutes each of his first two seasons in the Rocky Mountains.
That may sound like a player who has lost the faith of the coaching staff, but it is more likely a microcosm of Jared Bednar’s coaching philosophy, sticking with lines he likes. It was reminiscent of Bednar sitting 60 point scorer Andre Burakovsky during the 2022 playoffs because he preferred his fourth line the way it was, despite none of them scoring more than 20 points that season. Drouin would be an excellent player to keep around for roster flexibility, but at an estimated $5 million AAV he may have priced himself out of Colorado, barring any significant trades.
Colorado must trade away luxury players, but retain assets
As written previously, Colorado will need to become cap compliant for opening night after the Nelson signing by subtracting from their NHL roster. On the back end, trading away a player like Josh Manson and his $4.5 million salary would allow the team to fill two defense spots — basically the rest of the blue line — with his money. On the other hand, moving out forwards such as Miles Wood or Ross Colton could provide the team with additional flexibility to sign Drouin, or fill out the bottom of their roster more efficiently. Either way, someone will be on the move prior to the start of next season.
That being said, Colorado is seriously lacking high level prospects and has used most of their early round draft picks continually upgrading the roster at each year’s trade deadline. It would be wise of MacFarland to try to retain some of their remaining picks and prospects, as well as trading for more of these assets to utilize at this year’s deadline.
Whatever method is used to fill out this almost-complete roster, this team will be a Stanley Cup contender again next year. Colorado’s dream scenario is incredibly easy to envision, but it should be an interesting offseason in Denver nonetheless.
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