Thailand is expected to record the slowest economic growth in ASEAN in 2026 after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast to 1.5%, down from 1.6% projected in January. The downgrade, reported today, April 17, places Thailand behind its regional peers, including Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.
The IMF said Vietnam is expected to lead the region with 7.1% growth, followed by Indonesia at 5%, Malaysia at 4.7%, the Philippines at 4.1% and Singapore at 3.5%. Cambodia and Laos are each forecast to grow by around 4%, while Myanmar is projected at 3%.
The new Thailand economy forecast came as the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% earlier this year.
The fund said conflict in the Middle East continues to put pressure on energy markets, inflation and financial stability, warning that a prolonged crisis could trigger another energy shock similar to the one seen in 2022.
The IMF forecast Thailand’s inflation at 0.9% in 2026, far below estimates from Thai agencies. In Thailand, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) put inflation at 2.7% to 5.8% depending on how Middle East tensions develop, while the Bank of Thailand forecast 2.5% to 3.5%.
The IMF said countries that rely heavily on imported energy, particularly developing and low-income economies, are likely to face the biggest strain from rising energy costs and limited room for policy support.
It added that energy-exporting countries are also exposed to risks, including possible disruption to infrastructure, production and exports.
Thailand’s finance minister and deputy prime minister, Ekniti Nitithanprapas, said at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings 2026 in Washington DC, United States, that Thailand was preparing for growing global uncertainty and Asia’s changing role in the world economy.
Ekniti said Thailand still faced long-running problems, especially weak investment. He said the government wanted to speed up spending on infrastructure, digital technology and AI, while changing regulations and improving workforce skills to support stronger long-term growth.
On energy and geopolitical risks, he presented a “4T” framework consisting of Target, Transition, Transformation and Together. The approach includes targeted support measures, a faster shift to clean energy, broader economic restructuring and cooperation across sectors.
He also called for faster development of energy infrastructure, including smart grids and Direct PPA mechanisms, to improve flexibility and efficiency in the electricity system and promote renewable energy use.
On fiscal policy, the government said it would continue to focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus measures.
Ejan reported that the government also plans to invest more in the green and digital economy to improve Thailand’s competitiveness and long-term resilience.
Despite the weaker outlook, Ekniti said ASEAN could still play a bigger role in supporting the global economy as international divisions deepen.
In a separate development, the IMF has warned Thailand to boost protections for struggling families or risk keeping millions trapped in a cycle of crushing debt, much of it borrowed just to put food on the table.
The story Thailand set for slowest economic growth in ASEAN in 2026, IMF says as seen on Thaiger News.
