Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues to unsettle global energy markets after a blockade enforced by the United States Armed Forces created uncertainty around key oil shipping routes.
The vital corridor – responsible for roughly a fifth of global oil and gas trade – has seen increased naval activity following the collapse of talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.
Shipping data indicates that some vessels have diverted or turned back, while others continue to transit under selective enforcement measures.
Oil markets react
Brent crude prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel before retreating into volatile trading, as markets weigh the risk of prolonged disruption against the possibility of renewed diplomacy.
Analysts note that even without a full shutdown, the situation is already impacting global supply chains.
Tanker rates have risen, insurance premiums for vessels transiting the region have increased, and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope is being considered by some operators – adding significant time and cost to deliveries.
Energy experts also point out that OPEC+ producers have limited short-term spare capacity to offset any sustained disruption, heightening market sensitivity to developments in the region.
Iran has condemned the blockade as an act of piracy and warned of retaliation, raising fears of a broader regional conflict that could threaten additional oil infrastructure and shipping lanes.
Impact on South Africa
For South Africa, the implications remain significant. As a net importer of fuel, the country is highly exposed to global oil price movements and fluctuations in the rand.
A sustained rise in crude prices – combined with higher shipping and insurance costs – could place further pressure on local fuel prices in upcoming monthly adjustments.
Early indicators already suggest mounting under-recoveries, pointing to likely increases in petrol and diesel costs.
Economists warn that continued instability – even without a complete closure of the waterway – could quickly filter through to South African consumers, affecting transport costs, food prices, and broader inflation.
While there are still signs that diplomatic channels could reopen, the situation remains fluid, with global markets closely monitoring developments in one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for May 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
| FUEL | PRICE CHANGE |
| Petrol 93 | increase of 202 cents |
| Petrol 95 | increase of 236 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% | increase of 707 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% | increase of 709 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | increase of 581 cents |
If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 202 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 236 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 707 and 709 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 581 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $94.73 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.39/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.
April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):
| INLAND | April |
| Petrol 93 | R23.25 |
| Petrol 95 | R23.36 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R25.90 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R26.11 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R24.21 |
| COASTAL | April |
| Petrol 93 | R22.46 |
| Petrol 95 | R22.53 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R25.07 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R25.35 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R23.19 |
